I was a gamer growing up. Now, all these years later, I still play games with my 8-year-old son. Combining my love for gaming and investing led me to Tinybuild. Who is Tinybuild? Tinybuild was founded in 2011 by Alex Nichiporchik and Tom Brien. It started as a game development studio and became a game publishing company in 2013. It has since grown
Just came by to say that I discovered your write-ups and love them. The breadth of the analysis and of insights is unparallelled elsewhere. Great work.
Hi Kevin, one question I have meant to ask (pushing my luck a bit :-) Do you have any thoughts on the latest developments, by which I mean the disastrous Dec 5 trading update and the looming potential dilution? At first glance, the current MC of just 5m seems to take into account the nuclear scenario where the company is liquidated and there are no liquidation proceeds at all. This just seems incredulous. For one thing, the assets on the balance sheet have already been heavily impaired, and presumably even in case of a liquidation / sale of assets the existing IP would be sold. Even impairing the current book value further by 50%, the proceeds from the sale would still be at tens of millions of GBP. The market basically says now that the company is worth zero, there's zero chance of them ever regaining their footing and if it ends up in liquidation no proceeds will be realized from the sale of its assets / IP. I just don't find that even remotely plausible but was curious if you had thoughts on the topic.
I agree, that it seems like the market only hears: We have currently 5 million in cash, and then it trades towards that value. The entire business is worth nil. The CEO will underwrite a future equity raise to address the liquidity issues, but the big question will be, at what price? The current market price, a higher price? We will have to wait and see what they will decide. If you want to have more insights, I implore you to read the latest article on www.firmreturns.com He has a detailed update on TBLD.
Great deep dive on Tinybuild! I own shares and do think this will need time to play out ... maybe a lot of time (aka up to five years as you mentioned the holding period)
Just came by to say that I discovered your write-ups and love them. The breadth of the analysis and of insights is unparallelled elsewhere. Great work.
Really appreciate it. You just made my day :-)
Hi Kevin, one question I have meant to ask (pushing my luck a bit :-) Do you have any thoughts on the latest developments, by which I mean the disastrous Dec 5 trading update and the looming potential dilution? At first glance, the current MC of just 5m seems to take into account the nuclear scenario where the company is liquidated and there are no liquidation proceeds at all. This just seems incredulous. For one thing, the assets on the balance sheet have already been heavily impaired, and presumably even in case of a liquidation / sale of assets the existing IP would be sold. Even impairing the current book value further by 50%, the proceeds from the sale would still be at tens of millions of GBP. The market basically says now that the company is worth zero, there's zero chance of them ever regaining their footing and if it ends up in liquidation no proceeds will be realized from the sale of its assets / IP. I just don't find that even remotely plausible but was curious if you had thoughts on the topic.
I agree, that it seems like the market only hears: We have currently 5 million in cash, and then it trades towards that value. The entire business is worth nil. The CEO will underwrite a future equity raise to address the liquidity issues, but the big question will be, at what price? The current market price, a higher price? We will have to wait and see what they will decide. If you want to have more insights, I implore you to read the latest article on www.firmreturns.com He has a detailed update on TBLD.
Great deep dive on Tinybuild! I own shares and do think this will need time to play out ... maybe a lot of time (aka up to five years as you mentioned the holding period)
Agreed. Maybe even going through some divestitures to cut out low performing parts they acquired to stop the cash burn. We'll need to be patient!
This idea seems to combine elements of Net Nets (nearly) and VC. Very interesting!
Thanks a lot for your comment. I like the VC analogy because this investment, although the severe price drop, is not without risk. Thanks!
Nice right up here. I enjoyed this one. I Learnt a lot
Appreciate it! 🙏
Great write-up Kevin. Thanks for the mention at the end!